The coins rising before Fed decision narrative is in full swing — while some top cryptocurrencies are surging in anticipation of looser U.S. monetary policy, others are under pressure as traders brace for possible volatility. Below I dissect the situation for 10 popular coins, using both technical analysis and on-chain metrics, to show which ones are poised for upside and which ones might face downside risks.
- List of 10 Coins & Classification
- Technical & On-Chain Analysis of Each Coin
- Bitcoin (BTC) — Rising
- Ethereum (ETH) — Rising / Mixed
- Solana (SOL) — Mixed / Slightly Falling
- XRP — Mixed / Falling
- Binance Coin (BNB) — Mixed / Slightly Rising
- Dogecoin (DOGE) — Falling
- Avalanche (AVAX) — Rising
- Cardano (ADA) — Falling / Mixed
- Chainlink (LINK) — Mixed
- Sui (SUI) — Rising / Mixed
- Broader Market Signals & Altcoin Season
- Scenarios & What to Watch
- Why Some Coins Are Rising, Others Falling (Cause-Effect)
- Summary: Which Coins to Watch & Where
- Conclusion
List of 10 Coins & Classification
Here are the coins I’ll analyze, grouped roughly by their recent performance:
| Coin | Trend Before Fed (Rising / Falling / Mixed) |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | Rising |
| Ethereum (ETH) | Rising / Mixed |
| Solana (SOL) | Mixed / Slightly Falling |
| XRP | Mixed / Falling |
| Binance Coin (BNB) | Mixed / Slightly Rising |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | Falling |
| Avalanche (AVAX) | Rising |
| Cardano (ADA) | Falling / Mixed |
| Chainlink (LINK) | Mixed |
| Sui (SUI) | Rising / Mixed |
Technical & On-Chain Analysis of Each Coin
I go coin by coin: technical resistance/support levels, on-chain signals, and what might happen if the Fed act or speaks hawkishly/dovishly.
Bitcoin (BTC) — Rising
Technical analysis:
- BTC is holding above ~$115,000, with resistance around $116,000–$120,000. If BTC closes strongly above ~$116,000, bullish momentum likely pushes it toward ~$125,000.
- Key support zones are ~$110,000–$114,000; a drop below ~$110K might trigger a deeper pullback.
- Indicators like RSI are above neutral, MACD shows bullish crossover.
On-chain signals:
- Rising institutional accumulation.
- Short-term holder cost basis / realized price levels are being respected, indicating that holders are not panicking.
- Volume and transaction activity moderate; not yet explosive, which suggests caution.
Outcome if Fed is dovish:
- Strong rally; BTC could be a safe haven for risk flowing into crypto.
Outcome if Fed is hawkish / cuts but signals uncertainty:
- Could see retrace to support zones; possible consolidation.
Ethereum (ETH) — Rising / Mixed
Technical analysis:
- ETH is finding support around $4,300–$4,500 zone. Resistance near $4,900–$5,100.
- Recent momentum slowed; volume backing up pullups is weak.
On-chain signals:
- Withdrawals from centralized exchange reserves have been observed, which is generally bullish.
- MVRV for ETH (~1.97) suggests many holders in profit but not yet extreme.
Outcome if positive Fed decision:
- ETH likely to outperform many altcoins due to utility and staking yield.
If negative surprise:
- ETH may retrace below $4,300; sell-off might intensify.
Solana (SOL) — Mixed / Slightly Falling
- Price has moved in fits and starts; recent predictions warn of possible drop.
- Liquidity concerns, especially if market risk returns.
XRP — Mixed / Falling
- XRP had a bounce, but profit taking ahead of the Fed has hit it.
- Technical resistance near ~$3.30; strong resistance around there.
Binance Coin (BNB) — Mixed / Slightly Rising
- Some upward pressure; BNB looks relatively stable vs volatile altcoins.
- Likely to benefit if risk appetite returns (due to utility and exchange leverage).
Dogecoin (DOGE) — Falling
- DOGE has been sliding; meme-coins often get hit harder ahead of macro events.
- Higher chance of correction or sideways consolidation.
Avalanche (AVAX) — Rising
- AVAX recently gained strongly; resistance tests ongoing.
- Could be one of altcoins that break higher if sentiment improves.
Cardano (ADA) — Falling / Mixed
- ADA hasn’t shown strong momentum; profit taking is visible.
Chainlink (LINK) — Mixed
- LINK has support but needs volume to confirm upside.
Sui (SUI) — Rising / Mixed
- SUI has volatile swings; traders see potential but also risk.
Broader Market Signals & Altcoin Season
Altcoin Season Index (ASI): High readings suggest altcoins are outperforming BTC. Before the Fed decision, ASI has surged, meaning many altcoins are already rising faster than Bitcoin.
BTC Dominance (BTC.D): Slightly eased, indicating rotation into altcoins. When BTC dominance drops, altcoins often benefit.
Liquidations & Derivatives Risk:
- Long positions in altcoins like XRP, SOL, DOGE under pressure. Some analysts warn of 15-20% drops for these coins if Fed outcome or markets disappoint.
- Bitcoin appears more resilient in derivatives positioning.
Scenarios & What to Watch
Here are possible scenarios and how the 10 coins might behave under each.
| Scenario | Fed outcome / Tone | Likely reaction by Coins Rising | Likely reaction by Coins Falling |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dovish cut + optimistic tone | 25bps cut, forward guidance for more cuts | BTC breaks resistance, ETH, AVAX, SUI surge; altcoins rally after rotation | DOGE, ADA, XRP might recover some losses; falling coins catch up |
| Cut, but cautious / mixed message | 25bps cut but Powell emphasizes inflation risks | Rising coins may rally but stall; mixed / sideways action | Falling coins continue under pressure; possible drop if volume is weak |
| No cut / hawkish tilt | Rates unchanged or hawkish language | Rising coins correct; BTC may fall to support; altcoins sell sharply | Falling coins deepen decline; DOGE, XRP, SOL vulnerable |
| Surprise larger cut | 50bps or aggressive easing hints | Strong rally across most coins; rising ones lead; altcoins pop | Falling ones may outperform relative to expectations, but still volatile |
Why Some Coins Are Rising, Others Falling (Cause-Effect)
- Utility / fundamentals: Coins with stronger utility (ETH, AVAX, SOL) tend to do better when traders expect macro easing.
- Speculation vs momentum: Meme/inflation sensitive coins (DOGE, XRP) more susceptible to sentiment shifts.
- Risk profile: Coins with high leverage or high open interest (altcoins) suffer more when fear creeps in.
- On-chain health: Metrics like exchange reserve withdrawals, MVRV, transaction volume matter — rising ones tend to have better on-chain signals.
Summary: Which Coins to Watch & Where
Top Coins Likely to Outperform if Fed Is Favorable:
- BTC
- ETH
- AVAX
- SUI
Coins Likely to Underperform / Need Caution:
- DOGE
- XRP
- ADA
Watch Levels:
- BTC resistance ~$120,000; support ~$110,000–114,000
- ETH support ~$4,300; resistance ~$5,000
Conclusion
In the lead-up to the Fed decision, we see a classic divide: some coins are rising on expectations of easing and rotation into altcoins, while others face selling pressure or are trading with caution. Technical resistance and on-chain metrics tip the balance: coins with strong fundamentals and healthy network signals (e.g. BTC, ETH, AVAX) have the best chance to rise, while highly speculative or weak-volume names risk falling if the policy outcome disappoints.
Not financial advice.
